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What is Orthrus? Will new variant cause a COVID surge in Utah? - Deseret News

What is Orthrus? Will new variant cause a COVID surge in Utah? - Deseret News:

How effectively? Well, even people who have COVID-19 antibodies from a previous infection or vaccination still have pretty much zero protection against orthrus, Oakeson said, adding it also does a “really good job” of binding to cellular receptors.

Those two attributes mean the latest version of the omicron variant that sent COVID-19 cases soaring to record levels just over a year ago could spark another huge surge. Oakeson said it’s not yet known whether CH.1.1 infections are more severe.

“It’s still kind of early on with this,” he said, adding, “It’s hard to say right now that it’s going to be more severe.” But even if the severity turns out to be similar to previous versions of omicron, orthrus could still spell trouble.

“What we don’t want to see is like we had with the original omicron variant, that huge spike in cases that then relates to a huge number of people in the hospital and a huge number of deaths,” the chief scientist said. “We don’t want to see that again.”

(2) Meaghan Kall on Twitter: "That said, evidence is accumulating to suggest that XBB.1.5 does have the edge in infectiousness Due to the double nucleotide change at 486 increasing spike affinity to ACE2 h/t @yunlong_cao @SystemsVirology https://t.co/HHijGfPcP1" / Twitter

(2) Meaghan Kall on Twitter: "That said, evidence is accumulating to suggest that XBB.1.5 does have the edge in infectiousness Due to the double nucleotide change at 486 increasing spike affinity to ACE2 h/t @yunlong_cao @SystemsVirology https://t.co/HHijGfPcP1" / Twitter

China zero-Covid policy: How did it all go so wrong for Xi Jinping? | CNN

China zero-Covid policy: How did it all go so wrong for Xi Jinping? | CNN: 

 

As an unprecedented wave of infections – and deaths – sweeps the country, many have questioned why after sacrificing so much under zero-Covid and waiting for so long to reopen, the government ultimately let the virus rip through a population with little prior warning or preparation. 

15 Best N95, KF94, and KN95 Face Masks (2022) | WIRED

15 Best N95, KF94, and KN95 Face Masks (2022) | WIRED: According to a report from spring 2021, if an infected and noninfected person were both wearing cloth masks, it would take around 27 minutes for an infectious dose of Covid-19 to reach the noninfected person. If both were wearing surgical masks, that time would rise to about an hour. If both were wearing non-fitted N95s, it would take 25 hours to receive an infectious dose. This was before the Delta or Omicron variants, but it should offer an idea of the masks' relative effectiveness levels.

SARS-CoV-2 variants dashboard

SARS-CoV-2 variants dashboard

 

This is pretty cool!  I have quit thinking about variants when they seemed to be getting less deadly. 

CGP Gray mentioned that variants are getting more transmissible but less deadly.  I'd like to read more research about that.

Ultra-contagious BA.4, BA.5 subvariants fuel coronavirus spread across much of California - Los Angeles Times

Ultra-contagious BA.4, BA.5 subvariants fuel coronavirus spread across much of California - Los Angeles Times

 I thought I was done. I'm going to start linking to stories about the new variants, but actually start summarizing articles and make this an actual blog.  I'm trying to decide if I want to wear a mask or not.

North Korea reports positive covid case for the first time - The Washington Post

North Korea reports positive covid case for the first time - The Washington Post: With no vaccines at all, experts have said North Korea risks becoming the epicenter of new variants as a result of the population’s low immunity to the virus. 

The next variant: three key questions about what’s after Omicron

The next variant: three key questions about what’s after Omicron

This party isn't over.

"Although that has fed speculation that the virus could be evolving towards a strain that induces a milder disease, SARS-CoV-2’s evolutionary path remains unclear, says Rambaut. Thus far, new variants of concern have not evolved from the dominant preceding one. Instead, they have emerged from separate lineages. There is no guarantee that the next dominant variant will sprout from the ‘mild’ Omicron branch of the SARS-CoV-2 family tree. “It is possible that a later variant may be back to a Delta or Alpha lineage, with sufficient immune evasion to sweep Omicron away,” says Rambaut."

A new wave and a new booster? - by Eric Topol

A new wave and a new booster? - by Eric Topol

I would recommend the 2nd booster if you are more than 4-6 months from your 3rd shot, you are age 50+, you tolerated the previous shots well, and you are concerned about the BA.2 wave where you live, or that it’s getting legs as you are trying to decide. Or if you are traveling or have plans that would put you at increased risk.

It can certainly be deferred, but the question is when is the right time, and whether an Omicron-specific vaccine will have any advantage over a 2nd booster directed at the original strain. The data from 2 animal models (macaques and mouse models) suggests there may not be advantage of the Omicron-specific vaccine but that may not correlate with its effect in people. From my discussions with FDA, it is not likely the Omicron-specific vaccine will be available before late May or June. So you can factor that uncertain added benefit and timeline into your decision.

V

Vaccine scientists have been chasing variants. Now, they’re seeking a universal coronavirus vaccine.

“I worry about chasing variants, because there’s always going to be a new variant,” said Drew Weissman, a vaccine pioneer and immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine who is working on a pan-coronavirus vaccine. “Right now, every six months they pop up, but they’re going to pop up until the world is vaccinated.”

Genomic Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Predominance of the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variants — United States, June 2021–January 2022

Genomic Surveillance by the CDC: What are the implications for public health practice? The dynamic landscape of SARS-CoV-2 variants in 2021, including Delta- and Omicron-driven resurgences of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States, underscores the importance of robust genomic surveillance efforts to inform public health planning and practice.

So I had Covid last week, from 1/31 to 2/7.  I was really tired the first three days, then felt much better.  I'm so glad I caught the Omicron version of the virus, and that I had good vitamin D levels, two vaccinations and a full booster of the Moderna.  My only accomplishment that week was drinking a lot of La Croix mixed with orange juice and watching the fifth season of The Magicians.

COVID-19: an Endemic Doesn't Mean "harmless"

COVID-19: an Endemic doesn't mean "harmless"

In other words, a disease can be endemic and both widespread and deadly. Malaria killed more than 600,000 people in 2020. Ten million fell ill with tuberculosis that same year and 1.5 million died. Endemic certainly does not mean that evolution has somehow tamed a pathogen so that life simply returns to ‘normal’.

New version of omicron reported dubbed "stealth omicron"

New version of omicron reported dubbed "stealth omicron":The UK Health Agency reported cases of BA.2 have been detected in 40 countries and was first reported in the Philippines. It is the dominant form of the virus in Denmark.

Scientists say there is still much to learn about the new version. As of right now, there is “insufficient” evidence that it causes more severe illness or is more contagious than the original omicron variant.

Opinion | Omicron Is Not the Final Variant - The New York Times

Opinion | Omicron Is Not the Final Variant - The New York Times:

The world got lucky with Omicron. It’s unimaginable what would have happened if that highly contagious variant had caused disease as severe as Delta has. We may not be so lucky the next time. The world cannot afford to be so unprepared ever again.

Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Zeynep Tufekci - The New York Times

Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Zeynep Tufekci - The New York Times

Tufekci is so smart.  I desperately need to listen to this.

And here’s the thing, it is purely luck that this one is less severe because, contrary to popular belief, viruses don’t evolve to be milder. We gain immunity to them, for sure, as we get exposed, but they just want to transmit, they don’t care if you eventually die as long as they transmit through you.

So the fact that we got a very contagious variant that happens to be milder — and I’m not saying it’s great. I’m just saying it could have been much worse — is pure luck, evolution luck. So that’s what I think we know right now after six weeks, eight weeks, which is pretty amazing.

As nations decide to live with the virus, some disease experts warn of surrendering too soon - The Washington Post

As nations decide to live with the virus, some disease experts warn of surrendering too soon - The Washington Post:

The national strategies typically reflect elements of a country’s culture, wealth, government structure, demographics and underlying health conditions. Also geography: New Zealand has managed to record only a few dozen deaths from covid-19, one of the lowest per capita death tolls on the planet, by leveraging its isolation in the South Pacific.

Japan, Singapore and South Korea, nations with a long history of mask-wearing and aggressive measures to suppress epidemics, have managed to keep the virus largely in check without draconian lockdowns or major sacrifices to their economies.

Peru, hammered by the variants dubbed lambda and gamma before the delta and omicron waves arrived, has had the deadliest pandemic per capita, according to the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus tracking site. The nations of Eastern Europe, with older populations and high vaccine skepticism, are not far behind.

As nations decide to live with the virus, some disease experts warn of surrendering too soon - The Washington Post

As nations decide to live with the virus, some disease experts warn of surrendering too soon - The Washington Post:Many nations continue to impose mask requirements, vaccination mandates and travel restrictions. But few leaders in democratic societies have the political capital to take harsh measures to suppress transmission. Even the arrival of the ultra-transmissible omicron variant did not throw the world back into winter 2021, when the paramount goal remained stopping viral spread at all costs — much less back to spring 2020, when people were told to stay home, wipe down their groceries and not touch their face.

Even officials in Australia, long a fortress nation that sought to suppress the virus at all costs, have chosen to ease some mandates in recent weeks.

Additional antibodies may protect against COVID, study shows -- ScienceDaily

Additional antibodies may protect against COVID, study shows -- ScienceDaily: "Our results indicate that non-neutralising antibodies could also provide protection. This would mean that we have broader protection from antibodies than previously thought, making us less vulnerable to mutations of the virus. It warrants further investigation," says Pontus Nordenfelt who led the study and is a researcher at Lund University. In its efforts to produce vaccines and treatments, the research community has focused on neutralising antibodies, which prevent the spike protein of the virus from binding to the surface protein on our cells. In a large project led by researchers at Lund University, a more detailed study has been carried out on how the immune system also fights off the virus by means of phagocytosis, the ability to ingest foreign particles, in Covid-19 patients.